CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-26T15:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32220/-1
CME Note: Very faint CME seen to the E in SOHO C2/C3, and better in STEREO COR2A until a data gap begins at 2024-07-26T17:09Z. The source for this CME is likely a very broad area of dimming spanning approximately S10E15 to S10E50 observed over the tight cluster of ARs 3767, 3766, 3765, and 3764 beginning around 2024-07-26T13:00Z in SDO AIA 193, appearing centered the most around S08E35 near AR 3765. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 following CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T19:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:
predicted CME shock arrival time: 2024-07-29T19:00Z Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50% Kp Range: 4-7Lead Time: 43.70 hour(s)
Difference: 4.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2024-07-28T03:38Z
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